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Demographic change
The unit shows a way of addressing the important but abstract topic of demographic change in the classroom.
Demographic change is transforming the Swiss labor market, as an analysis by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) in its «SNB Economic Notes» series shows. The authors, Andreas Bachmann and Yannic Stucki, examine how the aging workforce is slowing employment growth.
Switzerland, like many other countries, is facing demographic change that poses significant challenges for its economy.
In an analysis from the «SNB Economic Notes» series — a publication series launched by the Swiss National Bank in 2024 — the authors Andreas Bachmann and Yannic Stucki show that since around 2010, more people in Switzerland have been reaching retirement age than young people entering working age. This trend is expected to intensify and significantly slow employment growth.
Change and Migration
The age structure of the Swiss population has changed considerably over the past 40 years. In 1980, 14% of the population was aged 65 or older; by 2023, this figure had risen to 19%, while the share of those under 15 declined from 19% to 15%. As a result, growth in the working-age population weakened, and without migration it would even have shrunk by 23 000 people in 2023. Immigration therefore continues to play an important role in the growth of the working-age population and employment.
The Future of Work
According to the study’s authors, the aging population is likely to significantly slow employment growth in the coming years. In a scenario where current trends in labor force participation, unemployment, and migration persist, employment growth in 2033 is expected to be only about half of the historical average (1980–2023). This will affect overall economic activity.
Higher labor force participation, stronger net immigration, and productivity gains compared to the current trend would mitigate the negative effects, but it is likely to be difficult to fully offset the consequences of population aging.
Switzerland is confronted with this demographic shift, and its effects on the labor market and economic growth will be noticeable. Understanding these developments is therefore crucial in order to prepare Switzerland for the challenges of the future.
The «SNB Economic Notes» are short papers on economic, monetary policy, and financial topics related to the mandate of the Swiss National Bank. These academically grounded analyses are aimed at a broad audience.
Andreas Bachmann is an economist at the SNB, focusing on economic analysis and forecasting. He completed his PhD in economics at the University of Bern in 2015 and is also a lecturer at the University of Bern, the University of Lucerne, and the Swiss Distance University Institute.
Yannic Stucki is an economist at the SNB, specializing in economic analysis and forecasting. He completed his PhD in economics at the University of Bern in 2018 and is also a lecturer at the University of Zurich.
Read the full analysis here.
